prospecthype

One of the tough parts of prospecting is deciding when to sell your inventory. Lots of times after you are done buying, prices will increase, and you will wonder whether or not it is time to sell. The answer is not always obvious or easy. Is now the time? Could I make more profit if I waited a week, month, year….? What if I don’t sell now and then prices fall below the point at which I bought in?

One strategy which seems to make sense in the most situations is to take a profit when you can, and don’t look back.  If you can sell and make money, a number of things happen. The first and perhaps most important is that you not only ensure that you will not lose money on your initial investment, but you make a profit. It is definite and certain, so you really can’t go wrong. The only possible way you can be wrong by selling here is if the guy then goes on to explode and his card prices continue to shoot way higher. This then becomes a missed opportunity to make even more money. But looking at the big picture, you made money, even though it wasn’t as much as you could have made, so it’s hard to complain too much. This is where the second part of the strategy applies: take your profit and don’t look back.Remember, hindsight is always 20/20…you more than likely didn’t know that the guy’s prices would go higher, so you made the best decision at the time, where you guaranteed yourself to make money. Be happy with your profit, and put the money somewhere else.

Another strategy is to hold through the potential profit period and see what happens. Sometimes you will win, sometimes you will lose. Prices could increase or decrease, so you have to use your best judgment about the player’s future to make the decision. If you think the player is good enough that he can maintain the level of production that pushed his prices up in the first place, then maybe it’s not a bad idea to hold and hope for further increases. If you think the guy’s current prices are realistically not going to go much higher unless he throws a no hitter or hits three homeruns in a game, then just sell your stuff and take your money and move on.

Perhaps the best strategy is to take the opportunity to sell as much of your stash as it takes to make back all your initial investment, and then hold the remainder of your stash to see what happens with your guy. That way, you can’t lose money, but you have some stuff to sell if his prices continue to increase (therefore somewhat heading off the ’selling too early’ issue).

Remember, the best time to sell is not always when the player reaches the majors. Sometimes it is far before that point. Look for times when he is receiving a lot of hype (regardless of whether or not he deserves it).

My bottom line for selling is that it’s better to be safe than sorry.